The First 100 Days of a Bill Hagerty Presidency: What the Record Suggests

Hero image: Tennessee State Capitol, Charlotte Avenue, Nashville — via Wikimedia Commons.

01 The scenario

This is a scenario analysis, not a prediction that the person will become president and not an endorsement or criticism of the person. This article does not predict that Bill Hagerty will become president. It asks a hypothetical question: if the Tennessee Republican were ever sworn in, what would the first 100 days look like based on his documented record?

Hagerty is a legible subject for this exercise because his record is concentrated on the two instruments a president controls most directly: tariffs and the executive branch's financial-regulation posture. He authored the first federal stablecoin framework — now statute — and he is a reliable Senate defender of tariff-first strategy. A reasonable inference from these positions is a first 100 days that opens with tariff actions and digital-asset rulemaking directions, with Congress receiving the anti-CBDC statute and China-accountability legislation.

02 The record: who Bill Hagerty is

Hagerty has represented Tennessee in the Senate since 2021 and is in his second term. His office boilerplate is the shortest biography in this series' research file: “a member of the Senate Appropriations, Banking, and Foreign Relations Committees and former U.S. Ambassador to Japan.” He served as ambassador from 2017 to 2019 in the first Trump administration, after a business career in private equity — he founded Hagerty Peterson, a healthcare-focused PE firm, after starting at McKinsey & Co. — and a stint as Tennessee's Economic and Community Development commissioner. He holds a Vanderbilt BA and JD.

The committee portfolio is the scenario's structural fact: Appropriations controls spending bills, Banking controls financial regulation, Foreign Relations controls treaty ratification and ambassador confirmations — the three levers a first-100-days agenda touches most.

03 The GENIUS Act: the signature achievement, already law

On Feb. 4, 2025, Hagerty led legislation with Sens. Tim Scott (R-SC), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) establishing the first federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins. He reintroduced an updated version March 10, 2025; the Banking Committee passed it March 13; and on June 11, 2025 he gave a Senate floor speech imploring passage: “I look forward to making history with my colleagues by passing this bill.” The GENIUS Act (S. 1582) passed the Senate and was signed into law by President Trump on July 18, 2025 — the first comprehensive federal stablecoin framework, requiring 1:1 high-quality reserves and issuer licensing.

The Senate vote tally of 68-30 is sourced to a legislative-history box that the digest itself flags for verification on congress.gov before citing — treat the exact count as moderate confidence.

The scenario-relevant part is what the law does to the presidency. The GENIUS Act is now statute: implementation rulemaking at Treasury and the agencies proceeds under his framework, and a future president must operate within the guardrails he wrote. Most financial-regulation levers are administrative — a President Hagerty could direct Treasury/OCC/Fed posture on digital assets on day one, but as the framework's author he would be implementing his own design rather than improvising one. This is the rare first-100-days scenario where the president arrives having already written the rules he would administer.

04 Tariffs and China: the reliable defender

In April 2025, Hagerty publicly defended Trump's reciprocal-tariff escalation, including the hike of China tariffs to 125%: “China should have seen this coming,” per the Tennessee Star. He framed tariffs as leverage in Fox Business appearances through 2025 — “Trump's First 100 Days, Reconciliation, Tariff Negotiations” (Mornings with Maria, April 29) and a May 7 discussion of the administration's China negotiations on Kudlow.

Tariffs are pure presidential authority — IEEPA and Section 301/232 levers a president holds alone. Hagerty's record is not of tariff legislation but of defending tariff action as it happens, which in a first-100-days scenario means congressional cover for day-one tariff moves rather than resistance to them. A reasonable inference from these positions is that a Hagerty presidency would use the tariff instrument early and without Senate friction from its own party — the posture his 2025 media record documents him supplying for the current administration.

05 Anti-CBDC: the monetary-surveillance ban

Hagerty is lead sponsor of the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (S. 1124, 119th Congress; originally introduced with Sen. Cruz in February 2024). The bill amends the Federal Reserve Act to “prohibit the Federal Reserve banks from offering certain products or services directly to an individual” and bans use of central bank digital currency for monetary surveillance.

The lever split is notable: under the bill's own logic, the Fed could not launch a retail CBDC without Congress anyway — the statute would make the prohibition explicit and durable. The presidential levers in this file are the Fed chair appointment and Treasury policy direction. A reasonable inference from these positions is that a President Hagerty would nominate a Fed chair aligned with the anti-CBDC position and direct Treasury posture accordingly on day one, with S. 1124 as the statutory follow-on. Passing it would require congressional approval rather than unilateral presidential action.

06 China accountability and the Asia file

On March 12, 2025, Hagerty introduced the PROTECT USA Act of 2025 (S. 985, referred to Foreign Relations) — China-focused legislation. The digest flags that the bill's specifics were not detailed in the research pass and its text should be read before citing contents; this article cites only the introduction and referral.

His Japan expertise is the better-documented half of the file: as former Ambassador to Japan he is a leading Senate voice on the U.S.-Japan alliance and Indo-Pacific trade, appearing regularly on Fox Business on Asia policy throughout 2025. On Foreign Relations, a president's Asia nominations — ambassadors and State Department leadership — would move through the committee he sits on; his own background makes him influential on exactly those confirmations.

07 Appropriations: the spending lever

Hagerty's Appropriations seat controls spending bills — the must-pass lever of any first 100 days. His 2025 record shows him using the other levers in tandem: the reconciliation framework he promoted alongside tariff negotiations, and the GENIUS Act as Banking Committee business.

A reasonable inference from these positions is a first 100 days in which the spending bills his committee writes would carry the domestic side of an agenda whose China and tariff components run entirely through executive authority — a division of labor his committee portfolio mirrors exactly. No position on specific spending priorities is documented in the digest beyond the committee membership itself, and none is invented here.

08 What the record cannot tell us

The evidence runs out in specific places. The PROTECT USA Act's contents were not detailed in the research pass — only the introduction, date and referral are verified. There is not enough public evidence to determine a Hagerty position on the 2025 government shutdown, ACA subsidies, immigration, energy, or healthcare beyond procedural votes — his April 2025 media appearances focused on tariffs and reconciliation, and this article does not invent positions for those domains. The GENIUS Act's 68-30 Senate tally is sourced to a legislative-history box the digest flags for verification on congress.gov before citing.

What the record does suggest is a first 100 days that begins with the instruments his record documents him defending and designing: tariff actions under IEEPA/301/232 authority, Treasury and agency rulemaking under the GENIUS Act he wrote, and a Fed-chair nomination shaped by his anti-CBDC position — with Congress receiving S. 1124 and S. 985 and the appropriations bills his committee controls. Whether the bipartisan coalition that passed the GENIUS Act would extend to any of that — or whether his tariff defense would harden into something Congress resists — is beyond what the public record can tell us.