The First 100 Days of a Peter Welch Presidency: What the Record Suggests

Hero photo: The Vermont State House in Montpelier — File:The Vermont State House in Montpelier is the state capitol building 04.jpg, via Wikimedia Commons.

01 The scenario

Peter Welch of Vermont is a former 16-year House member now in the Senate, sitting on Agriculture with a documented small-farm bill portfolio. This article asks a hypothetical question: if he were ever sworn in as president, what would the first 100 days look like based on his documented record? This is a scenario analysis, not a prediction that the person will become president and not an endorsement or criticism of the person.

The premise rests on a specific 2025-2026 record: eleven small-farm bills, a no vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act over Medicaid and ACA-subsidy cuts, a yes vote extending ACA subsidies through 2028, an Iran war-powers vote, student-loan and offshore-wells bills, and a tariff-skeptic cosponsorship. A reasonable inference from these positions is that a Welch White House would open with USDA loan-program administration, offshore-remediation priorities and SNAP/ACA administrative rules — the day-one levers the digest maps — while the statutes went to Congress.

02 The record: who Peter Welch is

Welch is a Democrat and Vermont's junior senator, in the Senate since January 2023, succeeding Patrick Leahy. Before that: U.S. House from Vermont's at-large district (2007-2023), where he rose to senior membership on Oversight and Energy & Commerce. Earlier: Vermont state senator (1981-1989, including President Pro Tem-era leadership), Vermont House 2001-2003, and an attorney's background with a consumer-protection focus.

His Agriculture Committee membership — including the Livestock, Dairy, Poultry and Food Safety subcommittee — is confirmed by his own press release. His bill referrals suggest Finance, Judiciary, Banking and Rules activity, but the official roster was not fully re-verified in this pass (the senate.gov committee page returned an error); evidence strength: moderate on committees beyond Agriculture, high on Agriculture itself.

03 Agriculture: small farms and dairy

Welch is a prolific small-farm bill author in the 119th Congress: the BUFFER Act (S. 4912, June 24, 2026), the Milk From Family Dairies Act of 2026 (S. 4906), the FARM Home Loans Act of 2026 (S. 4182), the Fairness for Small-Scale Farmers & Ranchers Act (with Booker, Warren and Sanders as cosponsors), and the Agricultural Worker Justice Act (with Booker, Sanders, Fetterman and Wyden), plus the Family Grocery and Farmer Relief Act, Fair Credit for Farmers Act, FARM (repair) Act, LOCAL Foods Act, Honor Farmer Contracts Act, and Capital for Beginning Farmers Act.

His quote: “Without them, Vermont wouldn't be the place we know and love... rapid consolidation has jeopardized the well-being and vitality of farms across America — we can't let that happen.”

The lever split: these are statutes requiring Congress — but the digest notes that many of the FARM Home Loans and family-dairy goals can be expanded administratively under existing USDA and Farm Credit authorities. A president could move on day one what a senator can only bill for.

04 Healthcare and ACA subsidies

Welch voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (P.L. 119-21, July 1, 2025), citing CBO estimates that it cuts federal Medicaid by roughly $911 billion, increases the uninsured by about 10 million by 2034, expands SNAP work requirements to age 64, and lets enhanced ACA premium subsidies lapse.

He then raised alarm in early 2026 over expiring ACA subsidies, warning of coverage losses for Vermonters — and voted yes on the Lower Health Care Costs Act (December 11, 2025), extending expanded ACA premium tax credit eligibility through 2028. The subsidy extension itself is statute; SNAP and ACA administrative rules are the day-one levers the digest maps to a president.

05 War powers and Iran

On June 27, 2025, Welch voted yes on S.J.Res. 59, directing the removal of U.S. armed forces from hostilities against Iran absent congressional authorization.

This vote targets exactly the unilateral presidential authority at stake in any first-100-days scenario — the digest makes that mapping explicit. A president aligned with Welch's position would be asserting that the authority runs through Congress first; the resolution itself requires congressional approval rather than unilateral presidential action to become binding law.

06 Student loans, taxes and consumer protection

Welch introduced the Student Loan Interest Elimination Act (S. 4169) and the Unlocking Low-Income Taxpayer Clinic Funding Act (S. 4881, referred to Finance). Both are statutes requiring Congress.

On trade, he cosponsored the Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes on Imported Goods Act of 2025 (S. 151, Shaheen/Wyden, January 2025) — signaling a tariff-skeptic posture. On consumer AI, he cosponsored the Fraudulent AI Regulations (FAIR) Elections Act (S. 4774, June 11, 2026, referred to Rules) and the DTC Act of 2025.

07 Environment: offshore wells and conservation

Welch introduced the Plug Offshore Wells Act (S. 4239) — offshore well remediation — and cosponsored Sen. Bennet's Small Farm Conservation Act (S. 4867, referred to Judiciary). He also raised a lake-sturgeon awareness resolution.

Offshore-well remediation priorities at Interior and BOEM are a lever a president holds unilaterally, per the digest's mapping — the statute would set the program, but the priority-setting is administrative. The conservation bill is statute.

Per thelobbynews tracking cited in the digest: 10 bills sponsored, 50 votes cast, a 38% yea rate (a minority-party senator's pattern) and 2% missed votes — the quantitative shape of the record.

08 What the record cannot tell us

The evidence runs out in specific places. There is not enough public evidence to determine Welch's positions on immigration, on AI regulation beyond the FAIR Elections cosponsorship, and on defense appropriations — none were documented in this pass.

His exact 119th-Congress committee assignments beyond Agriculture were not fully re-verified (the official senate.gov committee page errored during research), and the status of the farm-bill framework he supported was not fully traced. The digest instructs: do not assume beyond the documented record.

Disclaimer: this article is a scenario analysis based on the documented public record as of September 21, 2026. It is not a prediction that Peter Welch will become president, nor an endorsement or criticism of him or his positions. Where evidence is incomplete, that is stated rather than filled in.