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A governing scenario · Reviewed September 22, 2026

Steve Daines
Beyond 100 days.

Daines's China, fentanyl and energy themes combine external pressure with domestic development. Their effectiveness depends on foreign cooperation, substitution by illicit suppliers and the economics of new projects.

A hypothetical presidency, not a claim of candidacy or an election forecast. Policy effects below are analytical possibilities conditional on authority, financing and delivery.

Person-specific focus · source-linked analysis

From a position to a governing program

The selected themes below come from this person’s series coverage. A source passage is separated from our analysis of implementation. The proposed federal pathway is an analytical translation, not a newly discovered promise. Unselected issues remain outside this review.

01 · Mixed executive and legislative authorities

Strategic competition and technology controls

Series context · Limited or mixed evidence

In March 2025, Daines met Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing — the first senior Trump-allied senator to do so after the inauguration — delivering what his office called “President Trump's America First message” and urging Xi Jinping to “stop the flow” of fentanyl precursors to Mexican cartels, which he said kill “nearly 100,000 Americans every year.” Every lever in this file is executive: pressure on Beijing, tariff linkage to fentanyl enforcement, and Treasury/OFAC designations of traffickers can be pursued by a…

Read the full context: China and fentanyl: the statecraft a president already holds

What can start before the program is complete

Target controls and screening to specific security vulnerabilities and coordinate implementation with partners.

What must change for the result to endure

Build substitute supply, expertise and review mechanisms while maintaining clear legal boundaries.

Drill down: failure modes and the test of success

Where it can stall: Substitution and evasion can dilute controls; broad restrictions may undermine the innovation base.

Evidence that would change the assessment: Critical dependencies, evasion, allied participation, investment, research capacity and costs borne by downstream users. Compare outcomes with the pre-policy baseline and affected groups that did not receive the intervention; distinguish outside shocks from the policy’s contribution.

Before assigning a net winner: obtain the actual proposal, funding source, affected population, transition plan and independent cost estimate. An announcement, sponsorship or appropriation alone does not establish the final effect.

02 · Mixed executive and legislative authorities

Border security and interdiction

Series context · Limited or mixed evidence

In March 2025, Daines met Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing — the first senior Trump-allied senator to do so after the inauguration — delivering what his office called “President Trump's America First message” and urging Xi Jinping to “stop the flow” of fentanyl precursors to Mexican cartels, which he said kill “nearly 100,000 Americans every year.” Every lever in this file is executive: pressure on Beijing, tariff linkage to fentanyl enforcement, and Treasury/OFAC designations of traffickers can be pursued by a…

Read the full context: China and fentanyl: the statecraft a president already holds

What can start before the program is complete

Set lawful priorities, staffing and oversight for interdiction and enforcement, separating criminal networks from legitimate activity.

What must change for the result to endure

Obtain legislation and resources for new authorities or sustained capacity, with review and redress procedures.

Drill down: failure modes and the test of success

Where it can stall: Deterrence depends on adaptation by illicit networks; arrests or seizures alone do not measure harm prevented.

Evidence that would change the assessment: Overdose and victimization trends, error rates, case outcomes, border wait times and cost per sustained reduction in harm. Compare outcomes with the pre-policy baseline and affected groups that did not receive the intervention; distinguish outside shocks from the policy’s contribution.

Before assigning a net winner: obtain the actual proposal, funding source, affected population, transition plan and independent cost estimate. An announcement, sponsorship or appropriation alone does not establish the final effect.

03 · Mixed executive and legislative authorities

Energy production and reliability

Series context · Series discussion

Daines's energy credo, in his own framing: “Energy security is national security... I'll continue to support an all-of-the-above energy portfolio.” On March 12, 2025 he led a bipartisan, bicameral bill letting FERC approve six-year extensions for pre-2020 licensed hydropower projects, with Sens. Cassidy, Kennedy, and Fetterman as cosponsors; he had earlier led major hydropower licensing reform in 2023, billed as the largest bipartisan hydropower permitting reform in two decades. The permitting agenda is mostly…

Read the full context: Energy: hydropower and the all-of-the-above portfolio

What can start before the program is complete

Set lawful leasing, licensing and regulatory priorities, identifying fuel, grid and workforce constraints.

What must change for the result to endure

Align capital investment and infrastructure with a durable statutory and funding framework.

Drill down: failure modes and the test of success

Where it can stall: Permits do not guarantee financing, customers, transmission or lower retail prices.

Evidence that would change the assessment: Operating capacity, reliability, delivered energy prices, emissions, local impacts and lifecycle public liabilities. Compare outcomes with the pre-policy baseline and affected groups that did not receive the intervention; distinguish outside shocks from the policy’s contribution.

Before assigning a net winner: obtain the actual proposal, funding source, affected population, transition plan and independent cost estimate. An announcement, sponsorship or appropriation alone does not establish the final effect.

Beyond the opening hundred days

How Daines’s agenda could develop

Choose the governing conditions. These scenarios test mechanisms and tradeoffs; they do not assign election odds, assume passage, or predict a numerical economic result.

Assume the specific proposal wins the votes and funding it requires; party control alone is insufficient.

Years 1–2

Use the first two years to enact the specified law, finish required procedures and start delivery.

Years 3–4

By years 3–4, evaluate actual use, costs and unintended effects; amend or stop ineffective components.

Years 5–10

In years 5–10, assess whether later governments retain the law, financing and operating capacity. This horizon does not assume reelection.

Chart 4 · From agenda to durable governance
ThemeWhat this scenario requiresWhat can interrupt it
Strategic competition and technology controlsBuild substitute supply, expertise and review mechanisms while maintaining clear legal boundaries.Substitution and evasion can dilute controls; broad restrictions may undermine the innovation base.
Border security and interdictionObtain legislation and resources for new authorities or sustained capacity, with review and redress procedures.Deterrence depends on adaptation by illicit networks; arrests or seizures alone do not measure harm prevented.
Energy production and reliabilityAlign capital investment and infrastructure with a durable statutory and funding framework.Permits do not guarantee financing, customers, transmission or lower retail prices.

Conditional winners and losers

Who could gain—and who could bear costs

Chart 5 · Qualitative exposure map. These groups can overlap: the same person can gain as a worker and pay more as a consumer or taxpayer. No net ranking is possible without specified legislation, financing and independent estimates.

The channels below assume the relevant policy is enacted and delivered as designed. Benefits remain conditional on implementation.

Strategic competition and technology controls

Potential beneficiaries

Security agencies and resilient domestic or allied suppliers could benefit if actual vulnerabilities decline.

Potential costs and risks

Exporters, researchers and downstream firms may face lost markets, higher costs or reduced access to talent.

Check the result: Critical dependencies, evasion, allied participation, investment, research capacity and costs borne by downstream users.

Border security and interdiction

Potential beneficiaries

Communities exposed to trafficking or violence could benefit if interventions reduce actual harm.

Potential costs and risks

Families, lawful travelers, importers and labor-dependent firms may face errors, delays or disruption; enforcement expands fiscal costs.

Check the result: Overdose and victimization trends, error rates, case outcomes, border wait times and cost per sustained reduction in harm.

Energy production and reliability

Potential beneficiaries

Producers, construction workers and energy users could benefit if additional reliable supply reduces scarcity.

Potential costs and risks

Nearby communities and public budgets may absorb environmental or infrastructure costs; stranded investments remain possible.

Check the result: Operating capacity, reliability, delivered energy prices, emissions, local impacts and lifecycle public liabilities.

Keep the source trail intact

Original articles and citations

The original reporting and analysis remain unchanged. Citations below are retained from those articles and are not all independently revalidated in this extension. Consult the linked passage, date and underlying document before treating a proposal or officeholding assertion as established fact.

All 1 series article

View 10 preserved external citations
  1. Daines — Fox Business interview on China and fentanyl (March 2025) (article context)
  2. AP via Flathead Beacon — Daines Beijing visit (March 21, 2025) (article context)
  3. Daines — HALT Fentanyl Act passes Senate (March 14, 2025) (article context)
  4. Daines — Finance Committee priorities and assignments (article context)
  5. Daines — bipartisan hydropower license extension bill (March 12, 2025) (article context)
  6. Daines — BABES Enhancement Act signed into law (Dec. 3, 2025) (article context)
  7. IA Project — Daines voting record (H.R. 1 OBBBA, July 1, 2025) (article context)
  8. Daines — 119th Congress committee assignments (article context)
  9. NRSC — Chairman Tim Scott statement on Daines retirement (article context)
  10. Rep. Downing — Crow Tribe Water Rights Settlement Amendments Act (article context)

Framework for the new analysis

The framework sources explain institutions and constraints; they do not support a numerical forecast or endorse these scenarios. Read the full method ↗