Arsenal Drained: US Depletes Long-Range Precision Missiles in Iran War

By August 2026, the United States had expended virtually its entire inventory of long-range precision strike missiles during the 2026 Iran war, according to multiple sources familiar with Pentagon assessments. The depletion — spanning Tomahawk cruise missiles, AGM-158 JASSM air-launched cruise missiles, and MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles — has raised urgent questions about American military readiness should a second major conflict erupt concurrently, particularly in the Indo-Pacific theater where China looms as the primary strategic competitor.

1.The Scale of Depletion

Reports from CBS News, CNN, and Reuters confirmed that the US had used approximately 80% of its key missile interceptor stockpile and "virtually all" of its offensive long-range precision missiles over the course of the Iran campaign. The war, which began on 28 February 2026 with US–Israeli strikes codenamed Operation Epic Fury, has consumed munitions at a rate far exceeding pre-war planning assumptions. Pentagon officials have described the burn rate as "unsustainable," with Tomahawk missiles in particular being fired at a pace that outstrips annual production capacity by a factor of roughly five to one.

The figures are striking. Of the roughly 3,700 ATACMS missiles ever produced across all variants, a significant fraction had already been committed to Ukraine prior to the Iran war. The remaining US-held inventory, already reduced by transfers and prior combat use, was drawn down further during months of strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and command-and-control nodes. Similarly, the JASSM family — with approximately 7,500 units produced across all variants — saw heavy use from B-2 Spirit and B-52 Stratofortress bombers striking fortified Iranian targets. The Tomahawk, the backbone of Navy strike operations, was launched in salvos from destroyers and submarines across the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf.

2.Three Missile Systems, One Drain

The depletion is not concentrated in a single weapons system. It spans three distinct platforms, each filling a different niche in the American precision-strike architecture:

BGM-109 Tomahawk — The Navy's primary land-attack cruise missile, launched from Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and Virginia-class submarines. With a unit cost of approximately $2.5 million per missile in FY2026 (Block V), the Tomahawk has been the workhorse of every US cruise missile campaign since the Gulf War. In the Iran war, Tomahawks were used in large-scale strikes against Iranian nuclear enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, air defense installations, and naval bases along the Persian Gulf coast. Production currently runs at approximately 200 missiles per year — a fraction of wartime expenditure.

AGM-158 JASSM / JASSM-ER — The Air Force's stealthy air-launched cruise missile, deployed from B-2 Spirits, B-52 Stratofortresses, F-15E Strike Eagles, and F-16 Fighting Falcons. The JASSM's 1,000-pound penetrator warhead made it the weapon of choice for striking deeply buried Iranian nuclear facilities. The extended-range variant (JASSM-ER) extends reach to over 1,000 kilometers, allowing bombers to launch from bases in Qatar and the UAE without entering Iranian air defense zones. At roughly $1.04 million per unit (AGM-158B, FY20), JASSM-ER production cannot keep pace with wartime consumption.

MGM-140 ATACMS — The Army's tactical ballistic missile, launched from M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS platforms. With a range of up to 300 kilometers and a unit cost of approximately $1.7 million (M57, FY2021), ATACMS was used against Iranian command posts, supply depots, and missile launch sites near the front. Prior transfers to Ukraine had already reduced available stocks; the Iran war compounded the shortfall dramatically.

Methodology note: The chart above presents a normalized analytical index based on reported total production figures (Wikipedia/DoD sources) and published depletion assessments from CNN and CBS News. Exact inventory figures are classified; the chart illustrates the relative magnitude of depletion, not precise unit counts. Pre-war ATACMS stock is shown at approximately 70% to account for prior transfers to Ukraine.

3.The Production Bottleneck

America's precision missile industrial base was not built for sustained high-intensity warfare. Lockheed Martin manufactures both the JASSM and ATACMS families, while Raytheon produces the Tomahawk. All three programs depend on a constrained supply chain for critical components — turbojet and turbofan engines, infrared seekers, GPS/INS guidance kits, and specialized warheads — many of which are sourced from sole-supplier vendors with limited surge capacity.

Annual production rates tell the story: Tomahawk production sits at roughly 200 missiles per year, JASSM at approximately 360–500 per year across all variants, and ATACMS modernization has been limited to upgrading existing missile bodies rather than building new ones. Against wartime expenditure that, according to sources, consumed hundreds of Tomahawks in the opening weeks alone, the math is stark. It would take years of uninterrupted production to replenish stocks to pre-war levels — and that assumes no further combat use in the meantime.

The Pentagon has requested $1.5 trillion for the next fiscal year, a record in modern US military spending, with significant allocations earmarked for munitions replenishment. But money alone cannot solve the problem. New production lines take 18–36 months to stand up. Skilled labor in aerospace manufacturing is scarce. And the long-lead components — particularly the Williams International F107 turbofan for the Tomahawk and the Teledyne CAE J402 turbojet for the JASSM — have their own production constraints that cannot be quickly relaxed.

4.Strategic Implications: The China Problem

The most consequential implication of the missile drain is not its effect on the Iran war — which the US has largely won on the battlefield — but its impact on deterrence vis-à-vis China. For years, Pentagon war games have assumed a Pacific conflict would require massive precision-strike inventories to target Chinese naval vessels, air bases, and missile sites across the first island chain. Those inventories no longer exist in the quantities planners assumed.

Defense analysts have warned that the current depletion creates a "deterrence gap" — a window of 12 to 36 months during which the US would struggle to sustain a high-intensity precision-strike campaign in the Pacific. China, which has been steadily expanding its own missile forces including the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile and DF-26 intermediate-range missile, may see this window as an strategic opportunity. The Defense Intelligence Agency has reportedly flagged the risk in classified assessments circulated to congressional leaders.

The production gap is compounded by the fact that the same industrial base serves multiple weapon systems. JASSM and Tomahawk compete for some of the same engine components, guidance electronics, and skilled manufacturing labor. Surging one line necessarily constrains the others. This is not a problem that additional funding alone can solve on a tactical timescale.

5.The Iran War's Munitions Timeline

The 2026 Iran war followed the Twelve-Day War of June 2025, in which Israel struck Iranian nuclear and military facilities and Iran retaliated with over 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000 suicide drones. The US joined that conflict in its final days with strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites. But the 2026 war — far larger in scope and duration — began on 28 February 2026 with Operation Epic Fury, a coordinated US–Israeli strike package that targeted Iran's leadership, nuclear infrastructure, and air defense network.

By the time the memorandum was signed in June, the US had spent an estimated $113.3 billion on the war. The Trump administration's subsequent request for $1.5 trillion in defense spending — a record — reflected in part the urgency of replenishing the depleted arsenal. But as defense officials acknowledged, writing checks and receiving missiles are separated by years of industrial lag.

6.Replenishment Challenges and Industrial Base Limits

Replenishing America's precision missile inventory is not merely a budgetary exercise. The industrial base for these weapons has atrophied over decades of reduced procurement following the Cold War. Lockheed Martin's missile production facilities in Troy, Alabama, and Raytheon's Tomahawk line in Tucson, Arizona, operate with limited surge capacity. The skilled workforce — welders, composites technicians, electronics specialists — cannot be hired and trained overnight.

Key bottlenecks include:

Propulsion: The Williams International F107 turbofan (Tomahawk) and Teledyne CAE J402 turbojet (JASSM) are produced by single-source suppliers with limited production lines. Expanding capacity requires capital investment and workforce development that takes years.

Guidance systems: GPS/INS modules and imaging infrared seekers depend on specialized semiconductor components, some of which face their own supply chain constraints in the broader chip market.

Warheads: The WDU-42/B penetrator warhead used in JASSM and the WDU-36/B used in Tomahawk require specialized metallurgy and explosive filling capabilities housed in a limited number of government-owned, contractor-operated facilities.

The Pentagon has explored several mitigation strategies, including multi-year procurement contracts to incentivize industry investment, relaxed specifications to enable alternative component sourcing, and international co-production agreements with allies like Australia and Japan. But none of these measures can compress the replenishment timeline to less than 18–24 months for the first meaningful batch of replacement missiles.

7.Video: CNN Reports on Missile Interceptor Depletion

CNN's reporting, citing sources familiar with Pentagon assessments, corroborated earlier CBS News accounts that the US had used approximately 80% of its key missile interceptors. The distinction between interceptors (defensive systems like the SM-3 and PAC-3, used to shoot down incoming Iranian missiles) and offensive precision strike missiles (Tomahawk, JASSM, ATACMS) is important: both categories have been severely depleted, but the offensive missile drain is the one that most directly affects future strike capability.

8.What Comes Next

The US faces a strategic dilemma. Replenishing the missile arsenal will take years and tens of billions of dollars. In the interim, American military planners must contend with a diminished deterrent posture at a time of rising global tensions. The Iran war has demonstrated that high-intensity, sustained precision-strike warfare consumes munitions at a rate that peacetime procurement cannot match — a lesson that was already apparent from the Russo-Ukrainian War, where both Russia and Ukraine have burned through staggering quantities of artillery and missiles.

Several policy responses are under discussion. The Pentagon's proposed $1.5 trillion budget includes expanded munitions procurement, but congressional approval and industrial execution remain uncertain. Some analysts have advocated for a fundamental rethinking of American strike doctrine, shifting toward lower-cost alternatives — including GPS-guided bombs delivered by stealth aircraft within defended airspace, and larger quantities of shorter-range weapons like the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) that are cheaper to produce. Others argue for stockpiling strategies that maintain larger war reserves, accepting higher peacetime costs to avoid the current predicament.

What is clear is that the era of assuming American precision-strike inventory is effectively infinite is over. The 2026 Iran war has proven that even the world's most powerful military can exhaust its most sophisticated weapons in a single regional conflict. The replenishment clock is now ticking — and the strategic competition with China will not wait for it to finish.