Analysis by N43 AND HERMES AI

Scenario analysis, not a prediction: JD Vance has spent his Senate career arguing that tariffs, subsidies and state power should rebuild American factories. His record — votes against CHIPS-style subsidies he then defended at home, a tariff doctrine at odds with his party's free-market wing — sketches what a Vance first 100 days would actually do.

JD Vance has spent the current administration as immigration enforcement's most visible political salesman — border trips, deportation talk, and a defense of the Alien Enemies Act. In a Vance presidency's first 100 days, what would actually change on the ground, what is already built, and what only Congress can move?

Marco Rubio has spent his career legislating against Beijing and, as Secretary of State, made Latin America his first destination and his signature file. A Rubio presidency would begin with more tools than most — but the first 100 days of any China-and-hemisphere agenda run straight through Congress, Beijing's sanctions list, and a region busy electing its own governments.

Ted Cruz has a decade-old deregulation bill with his name on it, a Commerce Committee gavel, and a public case built on LNG export politics and anti-carbon-tax pledges. A Cruz presidency would open with the most aggressive pro-production executive-order sequence of any 2028 contender — and run straight into the statutory limits his own record keeps describing.

Ted Cruz co-sponsored the Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026 — a bill to make every U.S. employer run new hires through the federal verification system. A scenario analysis of how much of that agenda a Cruz administration could execute in 100 days, and what the E-Verify data says about the system it would inherit. Not a prediction. Not an endorsement.

Ted Cruz wrote the No Tax on Tips Act, saw it folded into the 2025 tax law, and designed the Trump accounts he calls Social Security personal accounts in disguise. In a Cruz first 100 days, the tax code is already his — what's left is the second act: making temporary deductions permanent and finishing what he started.

The Green New Deal resolution has been introduced in three Congresses and never come to a binding vote. A scenario analysis of what an Ocasio-Cortez administration could actually enact in its first 100 days — and what her own verifiable record says about the gap between the mobilization and the machinery. Not a prediction. Not an endorsement.

Scenario analysis, not a prediction: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has sponsored or co-sponsored every major Medicare for All bill since 2019 — H.R. 1384, H.R. 1976 and the current H.R. 3069. A first 100 days as president would be an executive-authority exercise in expansion: what a president can do to the health system without the 60 votes the bill needs.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has spent 2026 publicly disavowing positions she once championed — decriminalized border crossings, abolishing ICE, even the Department of Homeland Security itself. A hypothetical Ocasio-Cortez administration would arrive with a mandate to reverse enforcement, yet be boxed in by statute, the Senate parliamentarian, and the courts. This is scenario analysis, not a prediction or endorsement.

She voted to end the Iran war four times. A 100-day scenario for a President Ocasio-Cortez, built from her actual war powers votes, floor speeches, and the war's verified costs.

Gavin Newsom signed SB 9 lot splits, SB 35 ministerial approvals, and the broadest CEQA reform in California history. But housing is zoned by states and cities, not by presidents. In a Newsom first 100 days, the federal levers that exist — HUD rules, transportation money, tax credits, litigation — would be the whole game.

Scenario analysis, not a prediction: if Gavin Newsom were sworn in on January 20, 2029, what would the first 100 days of federal AI policy look like? His California record — EO N-12-23, the SB 1047 veto, the SB 53 transparency law — maps a playbook that is neither Silicon Valley laissez-faire nor EU-style precaution.

Gretchen Whitmer's Michigan record is a running experiment in Midwest industrial policy: a $2 billion SOAR subsidy fund, a $3.5 billion Ford battery park, tens of thousands of announced auto jobs — and documented shortfalls. A scenario analysis of what a Whitmer first 100 days could do for the industrial Midwest. Not a prediction. Not an endorsement.

Scenario analysis, not a prediction: Gretchen Whitmer built a Michigan record on infrastructure — a $4.8 billion Building Michigan Together plan, 16,000-plus lane miles and 1,200 bridges rebuilt, then a $3 billion a year Mi Road Ahead funding proposal. Her first 100 days as president would be a test of whether that playbook scales to Washington.

Gretchen Whitmer codified the ACA in state law, erased nearly $200 million in medical debt, and built a Medicaid protection budget while Washington cut. Her pitch for a presidency would be cost-cutting without a system overhaul. Here is what a Whitmer first 100 days could actually do about what Americans pay.

Josh Shapiro calls his Pennsylvania Lightning Plan a bold all-of-the-above energy strategy: gas, nuclear, solar, storage — and a carbon cap. A scenario analysis of what a Shapiro first 100 days could do to national energy policy, and what his own state's record says about the strategy's limits. Not a prediction. Not an endorsement.

Josh Shapiro's Pennsylvania record is a checklist of process-first fixes — automatic voter registration by executive action, a first budget passed with both parties, agency consolidation, and permit decisions measured in days. A hypothetical Shapiro administration would bet that fixing how Washington works outranks what it does. Scenario analysis, not a prediction or endorsement.

Josh Shapiro has spent three years making permitting speed a Democratic talking point in Pennsylvania — a permitting office by executive order, a fight with PJM that saved consumers billions, and a “Lightning Plan” to build more, faster. A Shapiro presidency would test whether permitting reform can move from a governor's press release to the federal levers that actually decide what gets built.

Ron DeSantis built a Florida record of agency audits, board eliminations and a state DOGE that claimed nearly $1 billion in savings — while his 2024 campaign pledged to abolish four federal entities outright. This is a scenario analysis of what a DeSantis administration could factually do to the federal bureaucracy in its first 100 days, and what it verifiably could not. Not a prediction. Not an endorsement.

Ron DeSantis signed HB 1, the country's first universal private-school scholarship law, and in January 2026 opted Florida into the new federal Education Freedom Tax Credit. The federal school-choice architecture is already half-built. In a DeSantis first 100 days, what is left to do is the part that requires Congress.

Scenario analysis, not a prediction: Ron DeSantis made Florida the laboratory — HB 1 universal school choice, the Stop WOKE Act, SB 266 higher-education reform. A first 100 days as president would test how much of an education agenda survives contact with federal law, which mostly forbids Washington from running schools.

An evidence-based look at how Nicholas Gluba's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Tony Dastra's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Anthony Hudson's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Colt Shelby's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Donald Kissick's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Drew Cranmer's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Griselda Romero's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Ken Krawchuk's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Kyle Austin's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Pat Dixon's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Shehla Faizi's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Steven Young's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Andy Ellis's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Arshia Papari's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Eric Mulder's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Justin Filip's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Robert Gross's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

Kamala Harris spent a vice presidency casting a record number of tie-breaking votes for the Biden agenda and a 2024 campaign quietly repositioning away from her own 2020 positions. A Harris presidency would begin with a rare asset — four years of on-the-job training — and a rare burden: proving a Harris White House is not a third Biden term.

An evidence-based look at how Mike Feinstein's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Anthony Aguilar's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

An evidence-based look at how Ted Brown's existing policies and political record might translate into presidential action.

Featuring: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Pete Buttigieg

A scenario analysis — not a prediction. Neither has announced a national ticket, and an August 2026 Emerson poll shows the pairing's two halves polling very differently. But if it happened, the governing record is unusually legible: seven years of bill sponsorship for her, four years running a cabinet department for him, and a stack of court rulings already aimed at the policies they would move first to reverse.

Featuring: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Gavin Newsom · Gretchen Whitmer · JD Vance · Josh Shapiro · Kamala Harris · Marco Rubio · Ron DeSantis · Ted Cruz

Vance, Rubio, DeSantis and Cruz on one side; Newsom, Harris, Whitmer, Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez on the other. Across immigration, AI, taxes, energy, healthcare, education, defense and regulation, every would-be first-100-days agenda sorts into the same five buckets — and the buckets, not the candidates, decide what actually happens. Scenario analysis, not a prediction or endorsement.

Featuring: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Gavin Newsom

The 2028 Democratic conversation on AI has split into two documented camps: Gavin Newsom — SB 1047 veto, SB 53 signature, and a September 2026 AI-kill-switch executive order — and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose March 2026 data-center moratorium bill with Bernie Sanders would freeze the buildout until Congress acts. Two first-100-days models for the same problem.

Featuring: Ron DeSantis · Ted Cruz

Ron DeSantis erased climate change from Florida law and banned offshore wind in state waters; Ted Cruz has spent a decade legislating oil-and-gas dominance from the Senate. Both are Republican energy maximalists — but their first 100 days would diverge sharply on offshore drilling, LNG, and who Congress works for. Scenario analysis, not a prediction or endorsement.

Featuring: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Bernie Sanders

She leads the 2028 New Hampshire primary polls; he built the movement that trained her. A 100-day scenario for an Ocasio-Cortez presidency with Bernie Sanders as vice president, built from their records.